When Memphis Property Crime Peaks: The Season a Vacant Rental Is Most Exposed

Most conversations about Memphis crime are about where. This one is about when.

We keep a copy of the City of Memphis public incident file and read it a few different ways. Looking at the property-crime records across the three complete years the file covers, 2023 through 2025, one pattern shows up in every single year: property crime is seasonal. It climbs through the spring, peaks in late spring and summer, and falls to its low point in November.

What the city file shows

We measured each month as a share of its own year, so the steady year-over-year drop in total property crime does not tilt the result. Averaged across 2023, 2024 and 2025:

• May is the single busiest month for property crime.
• May, June and July all sit well above an even split.
• November is the quietest month, with October and December close behind.
• May runs about 38 percent higher than November.

The reason we treat it as a season and not a fluke: the same shape repeats in all three years on its own. Every year peaks in late spring or summer, and 2024 and 2025 both bottom in November. 2023 ran quietest in February with November close behind, which is the one wrinkle worth naming. A one-year chart could be noise. Three years that agree on the shape is a season.

One note on method. The file only has usable data from 2023 forward, so we used 2023 to 2025 and left the near-empty earlier years out. Total property crime is also falling year over year in Memphis, which is good news we cover in our crime-by-ZIP breakdown. The seasonal read here is separate from that trend, on purpose.

Why an owner should care about the calendar, not just the map

Here is the part that matters for a rental. The summer peak lands on top of leasing season. Most leases turn over in the warm months, which is exactly when a unit is most likely to be sitting empty between one tenant and the next. So the window when your property is most exposed physically is the same window when property crime in the city is at its highest.

That is not a reason to panic. It is a reason to schedule. An empty Memphis unit in June deserves more attention than the same empty unit in November.

Pair the season with the hour

Season is one layer. Time of day is the other. Our companion read of the same city file found property crime is lowest in the late morning and peaks around 5 p.m., while vehicle theft runs the opposite clock and peaks overnight. The full breakdown is here: when Memphis property crime actually happens, hour by hour.

Put the two together and the vacant-unit checklist writes itself.

The vacant-unit summer checklist

• Get the turn done fast. Days empty is the real risk, and it is highest in the months crime is highest.
• Exterior lights on a timer, front and back. A unit that looks lived-in in the evening is a harder target at the 5 p.m. peak.
• A visible camera at the door. Cheap, and it changes the math for an opportunist.
• Lock the things a vacant unit forgets: side gates, back windows, the electrical panel, the condenser.
• Have someone lay eyes on it. A drive-by on a schedule beats a monthly surprise.

You can check any block before you buy or before a turn on our Memphis crime map.

The limits

This is citywide property crime, not your street, and it is not broken out by rental versus owner-occupied. It tells you the season to tighten up, not a probability for one address. Use it to time attention, and use the map for place. The underlying records are public. Pull them and check us.

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